Goldman forecasts 50,000 U.S. job loss in October, first since 2020 | investingLive

Goldman Sachs expects first U.S. job loss since 2020 as labor market cools

Goldman Sachs economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have declined by around 50,000 in October, marking what would be the first monthly job loss since late 2020, as signs mount that the labor market is losing steam.

In a note released Monday, Goldman said its job-growth tracker slowed to just 50,000 new jobs in October from 85,000 in September, while the Trump administration’s deferred-resignation program—which let thousands of federal employees leave their posts but remain on payrolls through September 30—will likely reduce reported employment by roughly 100,000 positions in October.

Goldman noted that the drop reflects both private-sector softness and a technical adjustment as deferred government departures finally register. The last major decline in payrolls came in 2020 during the pandemic shock.

The official jobs data for September and October remain delayed due to the recent government shutdown, leaving markets to rely on private estimates and high-frequency indicators to gauge the true pace of labor market cooling.

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Earlier:

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A negative payroll print would reinforce signs of cooling labor conditions, potentially strengthening the case for further Fed rate cuts if confirmed once official data resume.