EUR/PLN to trade within a 4.45-4.53 range for now – Credit Suisse

Analysts at Credit Suisse expect EUR/PLN to trade within a 4.45-4.53 range for now. Monetary policy is likely to remain neutral for the zloty in the short-run. Additionally, markets are likely to stay relatively relaxed about zloty-risks associated with the Polish Supreme Court’s ruling on CHF-mortgages which might be delivered later in the summer (the date of the ruling has not been set).

Zloty still lacking a monetary policy driver

“We think the combination of these two developments – a lower-than-expected inflation print and reinforcement of a dovish bias by Glapinski – implies that the central bank is set to stay in wait-and-see mode at its meeting tomorrow (8 July), whereas some market participants think the central bank will use the meeting to declare a hawkish stance.”

“We expect EUR/PLN to trade within a range of 4.45 and 4.53 for now. This range view keeps us neutral on the zloty.”

“Lack of meaningful monetary policy drivers in the short run should keep EUR/PLN mostly influenced by global trends in the EM FX complex. Meanwhile, the Polish Supreme Court’s ruling on CHF-mortgages is pending with no set date for markets to focus on.”