EURUSD breaks to new 4 month low but can’t maintain momentum.

Pair’s fall short lived

The EURUSD started in the week in the Asian session to the downside, with the pair moving below the July 21 low of 1.17512, and trading to the lowest level since April 1 (4+ month low).The low for 2021 came in at 1.17035 and that still remains a key downside target for the pair. 

On the way down, the pair moved below the swing lows from July 20 to July 23 between 1.17512 and 1.17566.  The low could only reach 1.17416 however, before rebounding back above the July lows and rebasing near the 1.17512 level. The intraday high reached 1.17684 so far, but backed off.  The current price is at 1.1757.

Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, the move down after the jobs report took the price from a high at 1.1807. The correction off the lows today at 1.17416 has now seen the price reach up to test the 38.2% of the move lower at 1.17669. The 50% midpoint of the move lower is at 1.17748. That area (between 38.2% -50% of that trend leg lower) is a hurdle for dip buyers, but also a corrective area to sell for willing sellers. Stay below, keeps the pressure on the downside in the sellers in control.

Also of importance now will be the 100/200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The MAs have turned sideways indicative of a market that is more balanced.  The price has traded above and below the moving average over the last seven or eight hours as the buyers and sellers battle it out.  The last two hours has seen the price hold support against the 100 bar moving average (at 1.17594). Watch for that level and the slightly lower 200 bar MA (at 1.1757), to give some intraday bias clues.   Since it has been holding, the buyers would want that to continue. If it does not, that could lead to a new rotation to the downside and the sellers taking back the control from an intraday basis.