High-flying equity may keep gold prices under pressure; silver may fall more

NEW DELHI: After a sharp correction, if you are looking to buy gold and silver at the current levels then it may be better to wait as analysts believe precious metals will remain under pressure.

Silver prices have seen a sharp plunge from Rs 69,000 a kg to Rs 62,000 in the last one month. This crash may look lucrative to many investors who want to enter the metal at this juncture but prices may fall further 5 per cent from here.

“I think silver will go even lower. Rs 59000-60,000 is a good level to buy. People should wait for the dip,” said Vandana Bharti, AVP, Commodity Research at SMC Global.

Gold, on the other hand, is positioned slightly better, as it is trading within a range. Analysts said the major reason behind gold’s drop from close to Rs 48,500 to current level is the continued rally in equities. The gold-silver ratio is also at 8-month high, reflecting gold’s outperformance over silver.

Hareesh V, Research Head Commodities at Geojit Financial Services, said people were liquidating gold to buy stocks as benchmark indices hit fresh record highs almost every day in the recent few weeks. A consistently strong dollar also contributed to the decline.

Thanks to the massive retail activity, Indian benchmark indices are among the best performing in the world right now. Many analysts believe stocks will continue to rise, though there may be some intermittent corrections.

It is this selling in equities in recent days, coupled with the rising scare of Delta variants that is now active in almost all major regions of the world, that has helped pause the fall in gold and started a period of consolidation, said analysts.

However, the Delta variant has been here for a while now, so that may not be considered a major factor for supporting gold prices, argued Bharti.

The trend may continue, unless something major happens. Any unexpected decisions from the US Federal Reserve may provide fresh cues for the prices to move. Till then a range-bound trade is expected.

Another area of support is coming from physical and ETF gold buying. A wedding and festival season is imminent now, which will increase demand for gold in the market. A comparatively lower rate will also encourage buying.

“Target on the lower side is Rs 46,500-46,800 kind of level, while on the higher side it is Rs 48,200,” said Bharti, adding Rs 50,000 level is far away. On Monday, it traded at around Rs 47,200 level.