EURUSD tries to stay below a swing area of lows going back to early October
A collection of random swing lows between 1.15237 and 1.15455.
The EURUSDs initial move after the US jobs report was to the downside (higher USD). The price over the last few hours has seen trading below the low of a swing area of price lows going back to October 6. Since October 6 there have been a number of somewhat random swing lows between 1.15237 and 1.15455 (see red numbered circles).
- On Monday of this week, the low stalled near the top end of that range.
- During trading yesterday, the price entered into that area and found buyers on two separate occasions (see red numbered circle 10 and 11.).
- Earlier today another move into the swing area was made and the price bounced (see red numbered circle 12).
- Finally, the last few hours has seen a breach of the lower extreme with the low for the day reaching 1.15126. However momentum is not been able to be sustained. Buyers are trying to move back into the swing area.
Overall the nod and the bias remains with the sellers. This week, there was a failed attempt to move above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages on late Wednesday and early Thursday, but that move failed. The price also moved below a swing area from last week near 1.1582 and 1.1586. Finally, on Wednesday, Thursday and again today, the pair formed a swing area between 1.15619 and 1.15721 (see green numbered circles). The high today stalled against the low from Wednesday (see green numbered circles two and four).
Although the bias is in the favor of the sellers, there is some key support on the downside that still needs to be addressed and broken. Risk focused dip buyers will be looking toward the levels for support.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, a swing high going back to March 9, reached 1.14918. Just below that level sits the 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 2020 low to the January 2021 high at 1.14892.
If the price is able to move below those key technical targets, it would certainly increase the bearish bias.
Until then, however, traders can’t rule out support buyers leaning against that level (up to the 1.15237 October swing low) as risk can be defined and limited.