Expectations for US nonfarm payroll tomorrow morning
US nonfarm payroll to add 550K jobs in November
The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are for:
- Non Farm Payroll to add 550K jobs. That comes after a rise of 531K in October. That gain was above the 425K estimate. Job gains in September came in at 312K and August it was at 483K
- ADP nonfarm employment change came in at 534K on Wednesday. Last month ADP showed a gain of 570K which was relatively close to the 531K reported by the BLS.
- Goods producing jobs last month rose by 108,000.
- Service producing jobs increased by 496,000
- Government jobs fell by -73,000
- The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5% from 4.6% last month. The unemployment rate pre-pandemic was around 3.5% and 4.4% in March 2020 before spiking higher to 14.7% in April
- average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.4% versus 0.4% last month. Year on year earnings are expected to rise by 5.0% versus 4.9% last month
- initial jobs claims during the survey week came in at 268K which was lower than the 290K last month.
- Manufacturing payrolls came in at 60K last month. The ADP report showed a gain of 50K this month
- average workweek is expected to remain steady at 34.7
- The U6 underemployment rate is expected at 8.4% versus 8.3% last month
The details of the ADP report showed:
Goods Producing jobs:
- Construction +52K
- Manufacturing+50K
- Natural resources and mining +7K
Service producing jobs showed
- Leisure and hospitality +136K
- Trade and transportation +78K
- Education/health services +55K
- Information +10K
- Financial activities +13K
- Professional business services +110K
- Other services +22K
From last months BLS jobs report:
Goods producing jobs:
- construction +44K
- Manufacturing, +60K
- Mining, +4K
Service producing jobs:
- leisure and hospitality, +164K
- trade transportation +54K
- education and health services, +64K
- information, +10K
- financial activities, +21K
- professional business services, +100K
- other services plus 33K