TD on gold – China buying supports while Fed tightening does not

A snippet from a TD Securities note on gold

• Our tracking of the aggregate net positions held by Shanghai’s largest traders long and short suggests that this cohort has increased their gold length to its highest levels in the past twelve months, supporting prices
• while Comex shorts have largely been wiped out and ETF inflows have slowed as the fear trade subsides. In fact, dry-powder analysis still highlights the breadth of traders short in gold is near its smallest levels on record

But, on the other hand the analysts point out:

• Fed that is signaling its intent to reach neutrality by year-end and to start an aggressive QT regime doesn’t exactly stand out as a macro context in which gold inflows are expected to firm

And, the question is:

• Either gold bugs are sleepwalking towards a significant drawdown as inflows could subside alongside larger short positioning, or the resilience in prices is a canary in the coal mine for a different macro regime on the horizon.

Gold update: