‘Commodity markets should be tracked for macro risks’

Commodity markets should be tracked for potential macroeconomic risks, Dallas Federal Reserve analysts said in the latest sign that liquidity concerns in the sector have caught the eye of central banks and regulators.

“Ongoing developments in commodities should be monitored for potential impacts on financial conditions broadly,” according to the note from Dallas Fed economists, including Jill Cetina, who leads surveillance and supervisory risk analysis.

The commodities industry has long operated under the radar of regulators, but the clamber to restrict trade with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine is highlighting the role of trading companies as takers of market risk and intermediaries for global consumption.

“The threshold for central bank intervention in unregulated markets is high,” the economists said. “It would be prudent for firms active in commodities markets to proactively assess and further strengthen their liquidity profiles.”

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index reached a record in March as part of a 32% increase so far this year. Traders are taking steps to minimise the stresses of high and volatile prices: adding billions of dollars in credit, using options markets to hedge against increased margin requirements and reducing exposure to deals.