EURUSD moves back toward the 200 hour MA after run higher can’t get through topside target

The EURUSD started the NY session with a move below the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.08366). The move lower took the price to a swing area from trading this week (and Friday last week as well) at 1.08205.

The subsequent rebound off that support, rebroke above the 200 hour MA and moved back toward resistance between 1.0863 and 1.08728. For the 2nd time today, that area stalled the rally (see earlier post).

Now, the price is back down re-testing the 200 hour moving average, and traders wonder if it will hold or be broken once again?

So what was accomplished today for buyers?

• The price is higher for the second consecutive day. Yesterday the gain was minimal, today the gain showed more momentum
• The price extended above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines)
• The correction back below the 200 hour moving average held support against an interim level between the moving averages at 1.08205.

The not so good/bearish development is that the swing level between 1.08633 and 1.08728 could not be broken on the two tests

Going forward, holding the 200 hour moving average at 1.08366 would be required to keep the buyers in play and hoping for further upside corrective action. Getting above the swing area (above 1.08728) would open the door for a potential run toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high. That level comes in at 1.0920.

Conversely, a move back below the 200 hour moving average, may be the straw that breaks the camels back for the buyers as they lose confidence in the move to the upside. Move below 1.08205 and the 100 hour moving average at 1.08048 would be the downside steps for further selling momentum.