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Dallas Fed manufacturing index 1.1 vs 8.7 prior

  • Prior was +8.7
  • Output 10.8 vs 13.2 prior
  • The company outlook index slipped to -5.5, its lowest reading in two years
  • New orders 12.1 vs 10.5 prior
  • Unfilled orders 10.5 vs 12.4 prior
  • Shipments 11.8 vs 7.0 prior
  • Wages and benefits 50.9 vs 55.2 prior
  • Employment 24.6 vs 25.5 prior
  • Capex 19.0 vs 19.5 prior

Selected comments

  • The supply chain is in chaos right now. Everything is continually increasing. Suppliers struggle to get material from their suppliers. They struggle to get the personnel necessary to run production. Something has to give. These continual increases, which are almost monthly, are not sustainable.
  • We are currently running near capacity; however, we are anticipating a downturn for the second half of the year.
  • Out-of-control material costs and the inability to hire are causing inflationary price increases and extended production time, respectively.
  • Demand continues to outstrip our ability to supply.
  • We build vehicles for first responders, and in spite of having a record order backlog, we have frozen hiring and slashed spending and future investments to conserve cash because we cannot get the truck chassis we need due to supply-chain constraints. This is leading to increased prices and unacceptably long order lead times for our customers, with no clear visibility to when the situation will improve.
  • Our plans and trend line have been favorable, but with much uncertainty in the economy we have adopted a position of caution and cut back capital spending.
  • Labor shortage! Need a job?
  • It seems the supply-chain issues have eased a little, but hiring, training and retaining qualified employees continue to be a challenge.
  • There is an expected pullback in economic activity ahead; we do not believe it will be a “soft landing.”

If there’s a consistent theme here, it’s that supply chains are tight and  inflation  is high. Companies are dealing with it in different ways.