Forex Trading, News, Systems and More

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD seesaws near $1900 amidst risk-aversion and a buoyant US dollar

  • Concerns regarding the newest Covid-19 outbreak in China and geopolitics dampened the market mood.
  • Despite falling US Treasury yields, king dollar safe-haven flows weighed on Gold Prices.
  • Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD): Remains tilted to the upside, but a break below $1890-$1900 to open the door for a test of the 200-DMA.

The Gold Price seesaws around the $1900 figure after Monday’s 1.73% loss, which pushed the non-yielding metal towards fresh monthly lows at $1891.33 amidst a risk-off market sentiment. On Tuesday, the yellow metal is recovering some ground in a mixed market mood. At the time of writing, XAUUSD is trading at $1902.84 a troy ounce.

China’s coronavirus outbreak, geopolitics, and a firm US dollar keep Gold Price downward pressured

Worries around China’s coronavirus outbreak maintain investors’ unease. Lockdowns in Shanghai and news of the spread to some districts of Beijing threaten to spur another raft of inflation courtesy of supply-side disruptions. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continues to implement stimuli to the Chinese economy in its attempt to contain an economic slowdown.

In the meantime, the Russo-Ukraine tussles have taken a backseat of late. However, expressions by the Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov saying that the risks of a nuclear war are “serious,” summed up the already dampened market mood.

Meanwhile, the global equity market is mixed. The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against a basket, recorded a new two-year and half high at 102.235, though as of writing, gains 0.41%, sits at 102.145. Contrarily, the US 10-year Treasury yield is losing eight and a half basis points, down to 2.740%.

US economic data

Elsewhere Fed speaking ended last week, as policymakers entered the blackout period ahead of the following week’s meeting. On Tuesday, the US economic docket featured the CB Consumer Confidence for April at 107.3, lower than the 108 foreseen. Earlier, March’s Durable Good Orders rose by 0.8% m/m, lower than the 1%, but better than the 1.7% contraction of February

Next in the week is the release of the US Q1 GDP on Thursday and March Core PCE inflation on Friday.

Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD): Technical outlook

Gold Price bias is still tilted to the upside, but a break below $1890 would clear the way for a fall at least to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $1832.75, though a test to $1800 is on the cards. Something worth noting is that the RSI is at 39.23, in bearish territory and with enough room to spare before reaching oversold territory if XAUUSD bears like to drag prices lower.

If that scenario plays out, the XAUUSD first support would be $1900. Break below would expose the aforementioned $1890 support, followed by the 100-DMA at 1875.32, and then the 200-DMA at $1832.75.