Light economic calendar today. All eyes on the yen

One thing that surprised me in research notes from yesterday was how much attention the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker got. It fell to 0.9% from 1.3% after a handful of indicators were folded in.

The main thrust of the commentary was the risk of a technical recession (two quarters of negative GDP).

The consensus is still close to 3% but for some reason everyone is following an automated spreadsheet? The first reading on Q2 GDP isn’t until July 28 and there are loads of economic indicators between then and now.

Maybe it’s a sign that angst is running high?

In any case, today’s data docket won’t tell us much. Wholesale sales data for April is due at 10 am ET, the consensus is +2.1% on inventories. We get weekly oil supplies 30 mins later; the API data released late yesterday were on the bearish side but oil is higher after the UAE minister fretted about dwindling spare capacity.

The Fed docket is officially empty but one of them will pop up somewhere.

In terms of market action, the yen is absolutely crumbling. The Japanese bond market is going no-bid with the BOJ entirely unwilling to lay off the easing. If they don’t have an inflation problem now, the free fall in the currency will deliver one.