GBPUSD trades up and down with a bearish tilt

The  GBPUSD  rallied strongly yesterday. The BOE did raise rates by 25 basis points as expected. Weaker US data also contributed to a sharp move to the upside from a fundamental perspective.

Technically yesterday, the price stepped above its 100 hour moving average (blue line, then above a ceiling level from Tuesday and Wednesdays trade and the 38.2% retracement between 1.22038 and 1.2216. The 50% retracement and 200 hour moving average (green line) were also broken as was the 61.8% retracement at 1.23860.

What did stall the rise was an old swing ceiling between 1.2400 and 1.24107 (see red numbered circles in the chart above). Sellers also leaned against the low of the up and down “red box” that confined the pair from May 19 to last Friday (June 10). The low that swing area comes in at 1.24232. Sellers came in early against that level.

Today, the price move back below the 200 hour moving average and the 50% retracement, but has been chopping down and up and back down. Stay below the 50% retracement keeps the sellers more control (watch 1.2288 to 1.229954 resistance ). Him him him

As I type, the pair is making a new lows for the day at 1.2232, and looks back down toward the aforementioned ceiling and 38.2% retracement area between 1.22038 and 1.2216 as the next key downside target. Sellers are to take more control.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the low price this week stalled near the swing hi going back to March 20, 2020. During the Covid selloff, the price raced the lower below that level and bounced up to with fell to a new low, before restarting the run higher.