EURUSD dips below the 50% retracement of the recent move higher

The EURUSD is trading to a new low of 1.0102 as the clock ticks to Fed time at 2 PM.

The high in the London session today stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA (green line).

On Monday and yesterday’s highs, were higher but kept a good distance away from the 50% retracement of the move down from the June 27 high at 1.0283. The highs from last week also fell short of that 50% target. The high could only get to 1.0277. Buyers had their shot. They missed.

The price has now moved below the 50% of the move up from the July 14 low at 1.01144. Getting and staying below that level will now be close risk. Of course the risk through the FOMC can blow through that level on a dollar selling trade. Nevertheless, the pre-meeting bias is to the downside.

Now the move might be a reflection the EUR vs the view of the USD. The EU is looking to restrict energy consumption going forward as Russia puts the squeeze on flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Meanwhile the ECB has started their launch in rates which is expected to continue to the end of the year. Are the hikes coming at the wrong time?

Helping the downside is a weaker EURGBP which has now broken below the July 13 low and the low from yesterday. The price is also below the 61.8% of the move up from the March low at 0.8400. The price low tested the low from May 17 which is the next key target to get to and through.

The EURGBP has been down 4 straight days now. Moreover, the break to a new low is also looking like a break of the neckline on the daily chart below.