The bond market continues to be a key spot to watch in the week ahead

While the dollar steadied itself on Friday even as equities rallied, Treasuries aren’t offering much firm direction in the aftermath of the US jobs report and US consumer inflation data so far this month.

At first glance, yields look to be breaking lower from a technical perspective but since the hot non-farm payrolls and wage numbers, it has kept knocking on the door of the 100-day moving average (in the case of 10-year yields):

The action exemplifies a lack of firm conviction as bond sellers seem to be needing more to add to their recent impetus while bond buyers are holding on, in case there is reason for rates pricing to come down. We’re sort of caught in between that now and everyone is just pretty much waiting on the data to make their case.

For this week, we will have US retail sales to come so watch out for that. But we will have to wait until next month for the big ones, that being another round of US jobs and CPI data. Those will be the critical ones in determining what the Fed will do in September and provide some indication of the outlook towards Q4.

But for now, broader markets will be looking elsewhere for direction until bond traders decide to firm up. Today, it seems like the weak data from China is weighing on sentiment and that might carry over to the sessions ahead more prominently.