Barcalys view on risk assets is to remain bearish

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• Barclays Research maintains a bearish bias on risk assets in the near-term.
• “Despite the risk-off last Friday, risk assets are far above levels around June FOMC, when the Fed’s tone turned far more hawkish…The global equity index and the S&P500 respectively are up 7.5% and 10% from mid-June lows. Meanwhile, the macro outlook has worsened sharply since, and both the Fed and the ECB have turned far more aggressive.
• The Chinese macro outlook is not improving either, despite newly announced stimulus. Zero-Covid continues to hamper the Chinese economy, and the real estate market remains in trouble China also faces power shortages: rationing has led to factory shutdowns in Sichuan and Chongqing…But perhaps the worst macro development remains Europe’s energy crisis, with winter looming. Even with possible new fiscal subsidies, the price spikes are likely to be incredibly painful this winter,” Barclays notes.
• “In our view, markets have ignored how much the macro environment has worsened in recent weeks o The pullback in risk assets is likely to continue; we remain bearish ” Barclays adds.