Origo Commodities’ estimate suggests a drop in kharif production

New Delhi: Origo Commodities, an e-platform for agri-commodities, in its first report on Khari crop estimates indicated that production is likely to take a hit in the coming months.

Key highlights of the estimates by Origo Commodities

As per the latest estimate of Origo Commodities, India’s total Kharif crop production for the crop year 2022-23 is estimated at 640.42 million metric tons (MMT), which is 2 per cent lower than the same period last year.

Rajiv Yadav, Senior VP, Origo Commodities said the aim of this estimate is to arrive at a more realistic crop size and number.

“Total Kharif production estimates are lower due to the fall in the production of paddy, groundnut, castor, jute, and sugarcane,” he said, adding that final estimates will be rolled in November this year.

Tarun Satsangi, AGM-Research, Origo e-Mandi, estimates cotton production for 2022-23 to increase by 8.5 per cent to 34.2 million bales, which was 31.5 million bales in the year-ago period. One bale weighs 170 kg each.

Cotton acreage is estimated higher by 1.8 per cent than last year while yield is expected to gain by 6.6 per cent from last year given the favourable weather conditions in the key cotton-producing states this year, read Origo’s estimates.

Higher production is expected in Gujarat and Maharashtra, key producing states, which would offset the production loss coming from other states, Satsangi added.

For Soybean production, Satsangi said it is estimated to rise by around 5 per cent on a yearly basis to 12.48 MMT, compared to 11.95 MMT in 2021-22.

Soybean acreage is almost flat compared to last year, while yield is estimated to gain 4.7 per cent over the year-ago period, given the favourable rainfall distribution in the key soybean-producing states this year.

Origo’s estimates suggest that maize production is likely to remain flat, up by only a per cent to 21.95 MMT from 21.77 MMT in the previous year. Maize acreage and yield are estimated to remain flat in comparison to last year.

Higher production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will offset the production loss from Karnataka, estimates from the e-commodity platform showed.

As per the estimate of Origo e-Mandi, rice production for 2022-23 is likely to slump by 13 per cent YoY to 96.7 MMT against 111.17 MMT in 2021-22.

Paddy acreage has declined by around 9 per cent from last year while yield is projected 5 per cent lower than last year. The crop yield has been adversely impacted due to deficient rain in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar.

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