How long does it usually take for the jobs market to soften after Fed hikes? | Forexlive

The effects of monetary policy are long and lagged.

Deutsche Bank is out with a chart looking at the unemployment rate in the past 13 rate hiking cycles.

“Interestingly 12 months on from the first hike, all previous cycles saw the unemployment rate either flat (1958-) or lower (all 12 others),”writes FX analyst Jim Reid.

Although it’s been a much more aggressive cycle than normal, we’re only six months since the first hike.

Now, normally the Fed starts tightening as the economy heats up but this time they waited until it was overheated, so there are differences; but employment is not the first place we should be looking for signs of a Fed pivot.

Now next week’s CPI data on the other hand…

/US dollar