NZD/USD bulls eye recent highs in the 0.5650s

• NZD/USD holds below 0.5650 recent resistance ahead of key US events, 
• The US calendar is packed for the days ahead with US CPI and FOMC minutes in focus. 

NZD/USD is a touch higher in Asia, printing 0.5590  in a 0.15% move from the session lows of 0.5575 as traders move in on the US dollar as US bond yields tail off from the cycle highs that were made yesterday. The sentiment is the driver as investors look ahead to this week’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes and the US Consumer Price index for clarity surrounding the outlook for the Fed.

”Volatility remains elevated and jittery moves this week reflect nervousness and uncertainty more than anything else,” analysts at ANZ Bank explained, ”Nonetheless, it’s easy to understand why the USD and bond yields are heading higher given the noises the Fed is making, the inflation backdrop, and the geopolitical situation.”

As noted yesterday, the RBNZ is doing the right thing, and New Zealand still has a shot at a soft landing (consumers look pretty resilient, commodity prices remain elevated, exporters are benefiting from a lower NZD, and tourism is rebounding). However, FX markets remain attuned to global themes.,’ the analysts added as we head towards this week’s key events.

We have the FOMC minutes later today in the US session but the key focus will be on the inflation data later in the week. ”Core prices likely stayed strong in September, with the series registering another large 0.5% m/m gain. Shelter inflation likely remained strong, though we look for used vehicle prices to retreat sharply. Importantly, gas prices likely brought additional relief for the headline series again, declining by about 5% MoM. Our MoM forecasts imply 8.2%/6.6% YoY for total/core prices.”

Meanwhile, as for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the central bank still needs to do more to dampen inflation pressures and the sentiment is a supportive factor for the bird.”Consistent with that, we recently revised up our forecast for the Official Cash Rate and now expect it to peak at 4.5%, with 50bp hikes in both November and February,” analysts at Westpac explained.