Goldman Sachs “well below” consensus estimates of a US recession on the next 12 months | Forexlive

Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts at the firm say that the US economy does not appear to be on the brink of a recession for the moment.

GS place a probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 35%. GS say this is :

• roughly triple the unconditional average for a typical year in recent decades

But that they are well below the market analyst consensus of 63%.

GS add:

• One aspect of the consensus forecast that we are particularly skeptical of is the implicit view that rate hikes of the size we expect or just a bit larger will be enough to cause a recession.

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SPX update after Globex reopen for the week’s trade: