Gold dips on firm dollar, but hopes of less aggressive Fed cap decline

Gold prices slipped on Monday, having risen 1.8% in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar firmed, although faint hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive policy stance later in the year cushioned further decline.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,654.68 per ounce, as of 0330 GMT. Prices marked their biggest daily gain since Oct. 3 on Friday.

U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,658.40.

The dollar index rose 0.4%, dimming greenback-priced gold’s appeal for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were off their near 15-year high touched on Friday.

“I don’t think gold is out of the woods yet,” said City Index analyst Matt Simpson, adding gold’s move will depend on data and cues from the Fed’s next meeting if it is close to pausing or will keep tightening interest rates.

While the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 75 basis points at its November meeting, sentiment is building among officials to take a breather.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday the central bank should avoid putting the economy into an “unforced downturn,” and it’s time to start talking about slowing the pace of the hikes.

Gold prices have fallen more than 9% so far in the year amid sharp U.S. interest rate hikes, which increases the opportunity cost of holding the asset, which yields nothing.

“If there’s no Fed pivot and inflation continues to rip higher, we’re probably looking at the $1,500-$1,600 range as we get into next year,” Simpson said.

Indicative of sentiment, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.3% to 928.10 tonnes on Friday.

Spot silver lost 0.8% to $19.24 per ounce and palladium inched 0.1% lower to $2,021.31.

Platinum ticked 0.1% lower to $930.75, having hit a peak since Aug. 15 earlier in the session.