ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up, RBA hikes +25bp as expected, AUD down | Forexlive
- AUD/USD has dropped back after the as expected RBA +25bp rate hike
- RBA raises its cash interest rate by +25bp, as expected
- China, HK stocks having a big up day
- Head of Hong Kong’s central bank defend HKD USD peg
- Japan finance minister Suzuki will continue efforts with overseas authorities on FX policy
- BOJ Kuroda: BOJ must maintain easy policies to help the economy recover from the pandemic
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI October 49.2 (prior 48.1)
- USD/JPY trades down, 40-odd point drop – intervention not confirmed
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2081 (vs. estimate at 7.2070)
- Japan’s Industry Minister asks households, firms to conserve electricity use during winter
- China Caixin / Markit manufacturing PMI due today – preview
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says (again) closely watching FX moves with sense of urgency
- Japan Jibun S&P Markit manufacturing PMI for October 50.7 (prior 50.8)
- South Korea October trade data. Exports drop 5.7% y/y
- The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2070 today
- Yuan is dropping like a rock, but wariness persists of state bank intervention circa 7.35
- Ex MoF ‘crat says Japan has tools to smooth out yen moves (not control levels)
- ICYMI – Bank of Japan USD/JPY intervention has totalled circa USD61bn
- JP Morgan says the disinflation phase has begun, inflation to be ‘meaningfully lower’ soon
- Australian weekly consumer confidence survey falls again, down 1.5%
- Central bank rate hike week. Bank of Japan remains ultra loose. Sell yen.
- Australia data – October Manufacturing PMI 52.7 (preliminary 52.8, prior 53.5)
- New Zealand data – September building permits +3.8% m/m (prior -1.6%)
- Australia – credit & debit card spending data to Oct 28 shows spending remains elevated
- Mohamed El-Erian says the probability of a US recession is ‘uncomfortably high’
- Moody’s has downgraded Twitter
- AUD traders heads up: its a partial holiday in Australia today (unofficial full holiday)
- FOMC preview: Morgan Stanley expect +75bp this week, +50 in December and +25 in Jan(/Feb)
- Wild FOMC preview: JP Morgan say S&P 500 could surge at least 10% in one day if +50bp hike
- Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 1 November 2022
- Dow has its best percentage gain for a month going back to January 1976
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Biden to talk tough on oil company profits
A shout out to Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks today, boith gained strongly in morning trade. USD/CNY hit a 15 year high today, i.e. the weakest for onshore yuan. A weak yuan is encouraging inflows to China after the big stockmarket slide in recent months.
Data from China was once again poor. While the Caixin manufacturing PMI for October reported today came in higher than in September it is still in contraction.
While on data, South Korea’s exports fell for the first time y/y in two years in October. This will add to the mix of concerns over a slowing South Korean economy. South Korea’s manufacturing PMI ticked up to 48.2 in October (vs 47.3 in September), in contraction for the fourth consecutive month.
USD/JPY fell during the session. We had comments from Japanese authorities on monitoring FX moves and what have you. None of the comments were a departure from what we normally hear. USD/JPY fell from a high above 148.80 (briefly only) to lows around 148.20. Japan’s government decided to retain its stake in the Sakhalin-1 operator in Russia, a positive, at the margin, for Japan energy.
The USD fell more widely also. EUR, GBP, CAD all rose against the big dollar. AUD and NZD did also ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate , +25bps was the consensus expectation. AUD/USD fell back after the announcment after its rally leading into the statement.
AUD dropped after the RBA announcement: