US ADP October employment +239K vs +195K expected | Forexlive

• Prior was +208K (revised to +192K)
• Forecasts ranged from 150-230K
• Annual pay up +7.7% vs +7.8% prior

This survey has been relaunched and is no longer designed to predict non-farm payrolls . Instead, its aim is to offer a corrolary survey of the US jobs picture.

The US dollar has strengthened on the data with USD/JPY up to 147.30 from 147.10 with 10-20 climbs elsewhere. S&P 500 futures fell to -5 from +1.

The Fed won’t like to see the uptick in jobs growth in October, especially after yesterday’s strength in job openings. That said, Fed members know that employment is a lagging indicator so I doubt it changes their messaging about where rates will be in March 2023.