USDCHF below the 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart | Forexlive

The USDCHF – going into the weekend – was trading between the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart on the downside, and the 100 bar moving average on the same chart on the topside (green and blue line on the chart above).

The 200 bar moving average is currently comes in at 0.9930. The 100 bar moving averages is at 0.99884. I outlined these levels in the weekend forex report as bias defining levels in the new trading week. Move above the 100 would be more bullish while moving below the 200 would be more bearish

In trading today, the price has been able to get below that 200 bar moving average, and also a swing area between 0.9909 at 0.99299.. The price rotated to a low 0.9874 before bouncing higher in the early New York session. The price has move back toward the low the swing area at 0.99099.

On the downside, the low price was able to get below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September low at 0.98919, and also peeked briefly below the trendline connecting the September 30 low and the October 27 low. That trendline cuts across at 0.9882. However momentum could not be sustained below those levels. The price is back above both those technical levels.

Overall, the sellers are making a play below the 200 bar moving average. Traders aware of that level, took advantage of the break. Remember, that moving average did a good job of holding support back in September and again in October. The break below tilted the bias more to the downside.

For USD sellers now, stay below the 200 bar moving average and the swing area up to 0.9930 would keep the sellers more in control. Getting and staying below the 38.2% retracement and the aforementioned trendline is still needed to give those sellers more confidence and have traders looking for the next target down near the low from October 27 near 0.9841.

Conversely a failure and move back above the 200 bar MA and high of swing area (green numbered circles) at 0.9930 spoils the bearish play today.