NFP may not offer lifeline to the US Dollar – ING

It is now evident that markets have operated a structural shift towards a bearish Dollar narrative. Today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls may fall short of triggering an inversion of this trend, according to economists at ING.

USD downside risks persist

“Markets are approaching US NFP with a strong bearish rhetoric on the Dollar, and would likely jump on more risk-on (USD-negative) bets unless we see a convincingly strong payroll read.”

“The consensus is centred around 200K, and we forecast 220K, with the unemployment rate staying at 3.7%. Those numbers would be quite respectable and indicate that the jobs market has indeed remained extremely tight, but while it may halt the Dollar’s trend, it could fail to invert it.”

“All in all, the balance of risks appears slightly tilted to the downside for the Dollar today. A contraction in payrolls to 150K could generate a fresh round of large USD selling.”   

See – US NFP Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, less strong, but not weak