Aluminium to slide in early 2023 on poor near-term economic outlooks – ING

Aluminium prices have been highly volatile in 2022.Next year, negative macro sentiment will continue to put downward pressure. 

Aluminium faces macroeconomic headwinds

“Looking ahead to 1Q 2023, the risk for Aluminium prices will be mainly to the downside, with the prolonged war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, low gas availability, high inflation and weakening downstream demand all adding to the bearish outlook for the lightweight metal.”

“In the short-term, the market’s focus will remain on the bigger macro-economic and demand-side problems, with prices expected to fall further to $2,150/t in 1Q 2023.”

“We believe a recovery in price should start in 2Q 2023, although any recovery is likely to be slow.”