Fed terminal rate to reach range of 5.25-5.50% by May meeting – TDS

Previewing this week’s upcoming events from the US, TD Securities analysts said that they expect the minutes of the FOMC’s December policy meeting shed additional light on the Fed’s policy outlook for 2023.

Job creation likely gained momentum in December

“Note that the Committee signalled expectations of a substantially higher terminal rate for 2023 despite implementing a downshift in the pace of rate increases to 50bp at the December meeting. We are of the view that the terminal rate will reach a range of 5.25-5.50% by the May FOMC meeting.”

“Job creation likely gained momentum in December, with payrolls strengthening at the close of the year in the latest indication of still tight US labor-market conditions. The UE rate likely fell as well to 3.6%, while we expect wage growth to remain high at 0.4% m/m after accelerating to 0.6% in Nov. Separately, we look for the ISM services index to have slowed back to October levels.”