USD/IDR: Indonesian Rupiah to rebound modestly in 2023 – MUFG

Analysts at MUFG Bank consider that the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is set to rebound modestly during 2023. They forecast the USD/IDR to reach levels around 15.200 by the end of the year.

Potential IDR weakness mitigated by fundamentals and policy

“The IDR has weakened in 2022 against the USD, with an 8.8% move (until 16 Dec). From 2021’s close of 14,253, USD/IDR reached a YTD high of 15,750 on 4 November, before slight moderation thereafter. We expect a modest rebound for the IDR in 2023 and forecast USD/IDR at 15,200 at the end of 2023, from end-2022 of around 15,700.”

“Indonesia’s fundamentals have been broadly supported by external and domestic factors in 2022, despite some currency weaknesses from a stronger dollar. We anticipate a shift to domestic support in 2023, as external conditions turn more volatile. Our view of the slightly lower USD/IDR is premised on a weaker dollar alongside a balanced current account outlook in 2023. Risks