AUDUSD falls toward 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart | Forexlive

The AUDUSD moved higher in to the European session and in the process moved up into a swing area between 0.69825 and 0.69976. The high price reached 0.69955 just ahead of the high of that swing area (and below the natural resistance at 0.7000). The price rotated back to the downside.

The pair is now trading to a new session low. The Asian session low reached 0.6942. The price low just reached 0.6930. That is just short of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.69223. A move below that MA would tilt the technical bias more to the downside (see green line on the chart above). The 50% of the range since Dec 20 low comes in at 09.6892 and would be the next key downside target.

Conversely, hold support against the 200 bar MA, and get back above the broken 38.2% at 0.6955, would have traders looking back toward the higher swing area and the 0.7000 level. The high price last Thursday reached 0.7157 before rotating lower on USD buying.

The US session move lower is being supported by some risk off sentiment as the US stocks are all in negative territory. The Nasdaq is now down 200 points or -1.68%

Earlier this week the RBA raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled more hikes to tame inflation. The RBA has risen rates at 9 consecutive meetings. The rate moved up to 3.35% and is at the highest rate since September 2012. The CPI for the 4Q came in at 1.9% at the end of January. That is for one quarter. The central bank targets a band of 2% to 3%. The central bank projects that inflation won’t dip to until 2025.

The AUDUSD initially moved higher (yesterday after the rate hike) but rotated back down to retest the high of a lower swing and 50% of the move up from the December 20 low at 0.68926. The Powell comments sent the pair on a wild move up and down with the price extending higher today before move back down.