Russell 2000 Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price is now getting closer to the support zone at 1920. That will be the
last line of defence for the buyers as a break lower should give sellers
conviction that the sentiment is really turning.
The sentiment changed yesterday
as Fed’s
Bullard (hawkish, non-voter) acknowledged that he was open to the idea of
another 50 bps hike in February and he’s still open for it at the March meeting.
Moreover, he keeps his view of a higher terminal needed than what was projected
in December 2022.
A break lower of the 1920 support
will also turn the moving
averages downward giving another signal of a change in trend. The target for the
buyers in case they manage to hold the line would be again the high at 2030 and
the first target for the sellers in case we see a break lower would be
1720.
In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the price managed to break the trendline but then went sideways as the
support at 1920 saw buyers defending the line.
We saw a
similar rangebound price action in other markets as there’s little conviction
from both sides on what’s next for the economy. It’s likely that we will see
the support holding today unless the Fed speakers today sound very hawkish.
In the 1 hour chart, we can see
the recent catalysts and the absolute choppiness that’s been going on in the
markets for over a week now. The levels are set though: get below the 1920
support and we should see the sellers coming in aggressively, on the other
hand, get above the resistance at 1970 and we should see the
buyers regaining strength.
On the fundamentals side, the
tides are turning. The moderation in inflation seems to be slowing. Economic
activity seems to have picked up. And the labour market remains secularly
strong. The market is sensing that the Fed will need to do more and the risk
that something will break at some point increases by the day.