USDCAD tests 38.2% retracement of last weeks move higher | Forexlive

The USDCAD failed on the break above the 100 day MA last week (on Friday – currently at 1.35133). The move to the upside on Friday reached 1.35367 before rotating back lower. On the break, the pair also moved above a swing area between 1.3512 and 1.3526. That too failed.

The subsequent fall on Friday sent the pair back to recent swing highs between 1.3467 and 1.3479 before settling the week on Friday at 1.3471.

Today, after a rotation back above the lower swing area, the high reached to 1.3494 before rotating back to the downside and falling below the 1.3467 to 1.3479 area. The selling increased and the price low reached 1.34407.

Looking at the hourly chart, the selling against the lower swing area today set the ceiling. It will now take a move above that area to swithc the short term bias back to the upside.

Absent that, a break below the 38.2% and the swing high from last Tuesday near 1.3436 would next target the rising 100 hour MA at 1.34259. Below that, the 200 hour MA comes in at 1.34259.

Sellers are continuing to make a play in the USDCAD. Can they stay below 1.34749 now would keep the downside the preferred path in the short term with work to do at the 100 hour MA and 200 hour MA downside targets.