GBPJPY falls to 200 hour MA and stalls the fall. What next? | Forexlive

The GBPJPY is one of the biggest movers today. The pair is down -0.47% on the day, The move lower has been over the last 6 hours of trading, after a down and up moves into the early NY trading.

Looking at the hourly chart, the move to the downside this week started on Tuesday after the pair moved sharply higher on that day. In the process , the price moved above both the 200 day moving average (currently at 163.311 – see overlayed green line at the top of the hourly chart above) and the 100 day moving average (currently at 1.63555 – top blue line).

However, the break of the 100 day moving average was brief, and after failing back below, the last buyers turned back to sellers on the failure.

The consistent fall yesterday was continued into the early European session today, with the price moving down toward the 100 hour moving average and a modest swing area from February 14 and February 15 (see red numbered circles).

After bouncing back higher, the last six or so hours have seen a steady decline to the downside. That move took the price back below the 100 hour moving average at 162.26, the swing area between 162.02 and 162.16, and down to the 200 hour moving average at 161.67.

The low price today just reached 161.66. The current prices are 161.786. Buyers are stalling the fall against the 200 hour moving average

What next?

With dip buyers leaning against a 200 hour moving average on the first test, going forward it would take a move below to solicit more selling. More momentum to the downside would target the 38.2% retracement of the February trading range at 161.06.

Conversely the longer the 200 hour moving average holds support, the better chance that sellers turn to buyers and push the price back up toward the swing area between 162.02 – 162.16, followed by the 100 hour moving average at 162.262.

If the sellers are for real, and the high is in place after testing the 100 and 200 day moving averages, there should be sellers against the 100 hour moving average on a test. The price should stay below that level and probe further to the downside.