USDJPY fails on the break to new cycle highs, BUT sellers still lag downside momentum | Forexlive

The USDJPY on Tuesday, move above the high from Friday. The high on Friday reached 135.11. The price on Tuesday moved to 135.22, but could not sustain momentum and the price rotated back to the downside.

That move lower, bottomed yesterday near the 100 hour MA (blue line) and the price rotated back to the upside.

Today, like Tuesday, the price moved to a new cycle high. This time the Tuesday high at 135.33 was broken. The high reached 135.36. Once again, momentum could not be sustained.

The fall today has – true to the pattern – reached down toward the 100 hour MA at 134.574 (the low reached 134.63) and bounced again. The price is trading at 134.81 currently.

Buyers maintain control, but they are also frustrated by the inability to run higher on breaks.

Sellers meanwhile, are trying to scratch and claw, but having trouble getting below the trailing support at the 100 hour MA (there is a trend line as well). They can’t claim victory (even the smallest), until the 100 hour MA (and trend line is broken) and remains broken.

So the battle continues with the buyers maintain the upper hand in the pair.

Fundamentally, Kuroda was out saying that the BO intends to maintain easy monetary policy and the government energy assistance program will keep a dampening hold on inflation .

In the US, the Fed may be reaching a pause point, but that is now up to 5.25% to 5.5% from 5.00% to 5.25% earlier this year. Of course, there is nothing to suggest that the terminal rate cannot go higher if threat to inflation continues.

We know the employment has some cracks especially in big tech, but the other sectors of the job market are doing well. The initial jobless claims came in a touch lower (lower jobless claims is strong for the economy) than expected at 192K vs 200K estimate. The data today dovetails the survey week for the BLS unemployment report that will be released on the first Friday of March, and suggest that a solid gain can be expected once again. Last month, the jobs report surprised with a 517 job gain.