The USDCHF trades to a cycle high (& high going back to Dec), but running into the 100D MA | Forexlive

The USDCHF moved to a new cycle high, extending above the highs from Monday and Wednesday in the process. That took the price to the highest level since December. The problem is although the price moved above the Monday high at 0.94284, the new high could only reach 0.94395 before rotating back to the downside.

Looking at the hourly chart, that rotation off the earlier session high, sent the price lower but the decline stalled ahead of the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). That moving average comes in at 0.9393. That MA stalled the selling in the first hour of trading today.

The move higher from the 100 hour MA, moved above the Monday high, but found early sellers against the earlier high at 0.94395. Needless to say their is a battle going on.

So what’s the hold-up on topside?

The falling 100 day moving average loom above and cuts across at 0.9446. It’s certainly not out of the question that sellers would line up near the 0.9440 level against/just ahead of that moving average. Risk be defined and limited to 10/12 pips with the hope for a move back below the 100 hour moving average. Low risk. Higher reward potential.

So even though the price bias is higher on the chart above, there is a key reason to sell from the risk focused traders. I’m The 100 day MA is the reason.

However, having said that, it would take a move below that 100 hour moving average at 0.9393 (and moving higher), to give the sellers the needed confidence that a temporary high is in place at the very least.

Absent that, and there may be some reluctance with the 100 day moving average above, but the buyers are still more in control.