WTI bulls take on the $80s as focus moves away from China and onto the US
- WTI bulls are moving back in for a test in the $80s.
- The focus will be back on the US economy this week.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) erased earlier declines and is up for the fifth straight day, moving in on the $80s. It has made the highest closing price in the futures markets in three weeks. Despite the sentiment for a slightly-less-robust rebound in China’s economy, the black gold is back into the hands of the bulls late in the day on Wall Street.
At the National People’s Congress, China settled for a growth target of 5% in 2023. It was at the low end of expectations and suggests that China will not deliver major stimulus this year, but has an eye on long-term sustainability of growth.
Meanwhile, CTAs are set to remain buyers of WTI crude so long as prices can hold above the $73.00 mark, which has served as the bottom of the recent technical range, analysts at TD Securities said recently, adding:
”Looking forward, while outsized refinery maintenance is likely contributing to the oil inventory increases, they are also keeping product markets seasonally tight, offering a level of support to the market. Furthermore, the G7 oil price cap is starting to add additional steps to the buying process and could weigh on purchases from India, who have been a major buyer of Russian barrels thus far,” the analysts explained. ”In this sense, if Russian supply starts to tighten, at a time when the market is more optimistic on the prospect of Chinese reopening demand, oil markets could be set up for a sizable short-covering regime on the horizon.”
Meanwhile, the key data for the week will be with the US jobs market on Friday in the form of US Nonfarm Payrolls. The analysts at Danske Bank are expecting growth to moderate to 220k after the effects of warm weather and heavy seasonal adjustments in January fade. ”Overall, leading indicators suggest that labor market conditions have remained tight amid a recovering growth outlook.”
This data will follow the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where he might articulate a hawkish sentiment and a step back from the more cautious policy framework for raising interest rates. ”Recent strength in non-farm payrolls and retail sales argue that policy is not restrictive and the Fed may have been wrong-footed by a soft patch in the data in Q4,” analysts at ANZ Bank said.