AUDUSD moves up but runs into the 100 hour MA | Forexlive

The AUDUSD moved higher in reaction to the overall dollar selling after the US jobs report.

That report report showed a stronger nonfarm payroll jobs (311K versus 205K estimate), but hourly earnings were lower and the unemployment rate was higher than expected levels.

Also in play (and probably more important given its potential impact on the Fed) is the financial market concerns as a result of the Silicon Valley Bank situation. They had to take a $2 billion loss on their bond portfolio as deposits declined, losses mounted, and they needed to sell bonds at a loss.

All of which is leading to a flight to safety. The two year yield is down close to 20 basis points to 4.701%. The 10 year yield is down -15.3 basis points to 3.769%

So how does this impact the AUDUSD?

If it follows the dollar, the price should go lower. However, if it follows flight to safety flows, the AUD can be impacted negatively.

As a result following the technicals helps to clear the fog from the counter fundamental storylines.

The technicals show the consensus of the “market” traders who are reacting to the fundamentals. They help to define the bias.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the AUDUSD moved higher after the jobs report with the overall dollar weakness. However, the price did find willing sellers near the falling 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). That level comes in at 0.66278. The high price reached 0.66325.

In addition to that level, the swing highs from yesterday and Wednesday also formed a ceiling between 0.6628 and 0.66356.

So although the price moved above the 100 hour moving average briefly, it remained within the swing highs from both yesterday and Wednesday. There is some reluctance to move higher.

Technically if the buyers are to take more control, getting above that area along with the 100 hour moving average would be required. Absent that and the buyers are not winning.

Also in play is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high last Friday. That level comes in at 0.66442 and is the minimum retracement level that would need to be broken if the buyers are to take control.

So overall, the verdict is still out with regard to the AUDUSD. What’s the aforementioned levels for bias changing clues. If they cannot be breached, the sellers remain in control.