USD/CAD Technical Analysis – Bad News All Around | Forexlive
On the daily chart below, we can
see that compared to other currencies, the US Dollar hasn’t weakened too much.
This may be because the CAD is a commodity currency and it’s sensitive to
global growth and commodity prices.
The bad news out of the US like a
miss in Jobless
Claims, the pickup in the unemployment
rate and the failure of the Silicon
Valley Bank, are also bad news for the Canadian economy which
has the US as the biggest trading partner.
Moreover, the US is the biggest
economy in the world, and when it goes into recession the whole world is
affected, which is also bearish for commodities like oil for example. In fact,
we saw oil
prices falling in line with the fall in the USD.
We can see on the chart that the moving
averages are still clearly pointing north and the bullish trend with extensions
and retracements looks healthy.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that price has pulled back to the upward trendline and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. The buyers here will be fighting to push
the price up as they have many technical tools all in one place.
The support at 1.3664 will be the last line
of defence for the buyers as a break lower would open the door for a bigger
fall towards the 1.3520 level. A lot may be hanging on the US CPI report today. In case we get a beat in the
data, the USD should come back, while a miss may give the sellers control and
lead to the breakout.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that there’s a possible inverted head
and shoulders right at the trendline. This may be a sign that
the buyers are piling in and are looking for a push higher.
The neckline would be at 1.3800
but a break higher of the counter-trendline would give the buyers enough
conviction to start rallying and target the 1.3861 resistance without waiting for the neckline
break. All of this should be considered after the US CPI report as ultimately,
it’s the data that will give the direction.