USD/CHF Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below, we can
see the big selloff starting from the resistance at 0.94. We got three waves of
selling in the pair. The first was caused by higher-than-expected jobless
claims on Thursday. The second started on Friday as the unemployment
rate increased and wage gains were less than expected.
The same day the Silicon
Valley Bank failed and caused a risk off across the board with
markets fearing another banking crisis. The last one on Monday was the peak in
fear when treasury yields fell a lot in a single day as the market was pricing
at some point three rate cuts by the end of the year an no hike at the March
FOMC meeting.
As things calmed a bit, the
buyers stepped in again pushing the price up. We can see that the market is
overstretched as depicted by the distance of the price from the blue short
period moving
average. We should therefore see a pullback towards the moving average.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see the Fibonacci
retracement levels of the entire move lower since last week.
The most important levels for the sellers will be the 38.2% which is where the
price should touch the daily short period moving average and the 61.8% where we
have also the previous strong support that now may turn into
resistance.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that in the near term, the buyers may want to target the 38.2% as soon as
they break the orange resistance at 0.9164. The divergence between the price and the MACD of the last move lower towards
the 0.9059 support signalled a weakening selling momentum, and often times the
price pulls back to the top of the divergent move, which would coincide with
the 38.2% Fibonacci level.