NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below for NZDUSD, we can
see that after the Silicon Valley Bank failed, the US Dollar lost ground pretty
fast as the market repriced lower future interest rates expectations. After a
couple of days though as the Fed enacted emergency actions to backstop the
crisis and calm the markets, the pair started to range.
The price has been just bouncing
between the support at 0.6191 and the resistance at 0.6270. The moving
averages crossed to the upside, which may be a bad omen for the sellers, but the
MAs can give false signals in a rangebound price action. The market is just
waiting for more data to decide where to go next.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the range created after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Even
a less hawkish FOMC
decision couldn’t make the market to break above the resistance as the price
just melted in the following days.
The market is still uncertain on
the future and, even though it prices rate cuts coming soon due to recent
events in the banking sector, the economic reports after the events have all
been hot. So, there’s no sign that the crisis slowed the economy yet. This
is why the market will look at the next data carefully, beginning with US Jobless Claims tomorrow.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been rejected by the resistance again. The price broke
the trendline and we may see another fall to
the support level soon. The hourly moving averages have been quite reliable in
this environment as we can see in the chart.
So, if they cross to the downside
again, we may have the confirmation that the price is going all the way down to
the support. For tomorrow, it’s likely that we will see USD strength if the
data beats expectations and USD weakness in case it misses.