OPEC+ announces surprise production cuts from May; oil may rise by $10/bbl

Dubai: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further cuts in their production amounting to around 1.16 million barrels per day in a surprise move they said was aimed at supporting market stability.

The development comes a day before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and which had been expected to stick to 2 million bpd of cuts already in place until the end of 2023.

Oil prices last month fell towards $70 a barrel, the lowest in 15 months, on concern that a global banking crisis would hit demand. Still, further action by OPEC+ to support the market was not expected after sources downplayed this prospect and crude recovered towards $80. The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on Sunday.

Sunday’s pledges bring the total volume of cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.

“OPEC is taking pre-emptive steps in case of any possible demand reduction,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of Energy Aspects, said on Sunday.

Last October, OPEC+ had agreed to an output cut of 2 million bpd from November until the end of the year, a move that angered Washington as tighter supply boosts oil prices. The US has argued that the world needs lower prices to support economic growth and prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from earning more revenue to fund the Ukraine war.

Sunday’s unexpected voluntary cuts start from May.