NZDUSD waffles up and down ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. What levels are key? | Forexlive

The NZDUSD is currently displaying indecisive trading patterns, with no clear bias emerging ahead of the RBNZ rate decision in the new trading day (at 7 PM ET). The central bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.0%. The market is pricing in another 25 basis point hike to push the terminal rate to 5.25%. There is an expectations of rates moving lower by the end of the year (by about 30 basis points). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was targeting 5.5% as a terminal rate. Traders will be watching what the central bank feels now, and how they tilt may well determine the bias for the NZD going forward.

Currently, the pair is trading near yesterday’s closing price of 0.6295 after up-and-down trading. Despite this fluctuation, the price does remain near its highest level since mid-February.

Examining the hourly chart, a more hawkish rate hike that pushes the price above today’s high of 0.6314 could lead to the next target at the topside trendline of 0.6328. A break above this level would pave the way for further gains.

Conversely, a rate hike accompanied by dovish tones would likely drive the price downwards, towards the 0.6263-0.62699 swing area. Below that lies the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.62596, with the 200-hour moving average at 0.6242 and the upward-sloping trendline at 0.6212 (currently rising) providing further support.

From a broader perspective, the daily chart below reveals the price oscillating around the 100-day moving average of 0.62959. A sustained move above this level and the 0.6328 trendline on the hourly chart could see traders eyeing the 0.6363-0.63948 swing area (see red numbered circles). In contrast, a downward momentum shift could target the 200-day moving average at 0.61577 (indicated by the green line in the chart below) as a key downside objective.