US Dollar recovers ahead of US data, Chinese Yuan surpasses USD as most traded currency in Russia
- US Dollar Index has staged a modest rebound following the two-day slide.
- EUR/USD has the potential to test 1.1000 in the near term.
- ADP employment and ISM Services PMI data from the US will be watched closely.
- Bloomberg reported Chinese Yuan replaced US Dollar as the most traded foreign currency in Russia.
After having suffered heavy losses against its major rivals on Monday and Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) seems to have found its footing mid-week with the US Dollar Index staying afloat above 101.50. The private sector employment report published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and the ISM’s Services PMI survey for March will be watched closely by market participants on Wednesday. The USD’s valuation could be influenced by the market pricing of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate outlook following these data releases. Following Tuesday’s disappointing jobs openings reading from the US, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate increase has decreased to nearly 40% from 60% earlier in the week. Currently, the probability sits at around 50%.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar recovers modestly
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Tuesday that the number of job openings on the last business day of February declined to 9.9 million from 10.5 million in January.
- Employment in the US private sector is forecast to rise by 200,000 in March.
- The ISM’s headline Services PMI is expected to edge lower to 54.5 from 55.1 in February. The Employment component is seen holding above 50 and the Prices Paid Index is forecast to decline modestly to 65.2 from 65.6.
- Previewing these data releases, “all the economic numbers have the potential to influence market expectations on Fed’s monetary policy, which are steady regarding the very short-term but fluctuate sharply considering what could happen from the third quarter onwards,” said FXStreet Analyst Matias Salord.
- The US Census Bureau said earlier this week that Factory Orders declined by 0.7% on a monthly basis in February, compared to the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5%.
- Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Chinese Yuan has surpassed the US Dollar as the most traded currency, in monthly trading volume, for the first time in Russia in February. According to the outlet, the gap has continued to widen in March.
- Last week, Brazil and China have reached an agreement to stop using the US Dollar as an intermediary in trade transactions.
- On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that several producers in OPEC+ will participate in voluntary output cuts from May to the end of the year. The group’s total output will be reduced by more than 1.5 million barrels per day in that period.
- The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) started the week with a large bullish gap and touched its highest level since late January above $82. Following a consolidation phase, WTI holds comfortably above $80.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Monday that the unexpected decision by OPEC to lower output could make the Fed’s jobs of bringing inflation down back to 2% target more challenging.
- ISM’s Report on Business revealed on Monday that the headline Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.3 in March from 47.7 in February, revealing a contraction at an accelerating pace in the manufacturing sector’s economic activity.
- The Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey, the inflation component, dropped to 49.2 from 51.3. This reading suggests that input inflation in the sector softened in March.
Technical analysis: US Dollar still looks fragile against Euro
EUR/USD has staged a technical correction but managed to hold comfortably above 1.0900 on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays above 60 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to move away from the 50-day SMA following the bullish cross earlier this week, reflecting the bullish bias.
An interim static resistance for EUR/USD seems to have formed at 1.0950 ahead of 1.1000 (end-point of the latest uptrend, psychological level) and 1.1035 (multi-month high set in early February).
On the downside, 1.0800/1.0780 (psychological level, static level, 20-day SMA) aligns as first important support area before 1.0730 (50-day SMA) and 1.0670 (100-day SMA).
How does Fed’s policy impact US Dollar?
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has two mandates: maximum employment and price stability. The Fed uses interest rates as the primary tool to reach its goals but has to find the right balance. If the Fed is concerned about inflation, it tightens its policy by raising the interest rate to increase the cost of borrowing and encourage saving. In that scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to gain value due to decreasing money supply. On the other hand, the Fed could decide to loosen its policy via rate cuts if it’s concerned about a rising unemployment rate due to a slowdown in economic activity. Lower interest rates are likely to lead to a growth in investment and allow companies to hire more people. In that case, the USD is expected to lose value.
The Fed also uses quantitative tightening (QT) or quantitative easing (QE) to adjust the size of its balance sheet and steer the economy in the desired direction. QE refers to the Fed buying assets, such as government bonds, in the open market to spur growth and QT is exactly the opposite. QE is widely seen as a USD-negative central bank policy action and vice versa.