How has the stocks reacted in past when employment was released on Good Friday | Forexlive
Tomorrow, the US jobs report will be released while the stock market will be closed. As a result, there will be no stock reaction until Monday.
This will be the fifth time since 2007 that the dynamic has taken place. What has the S&P done the following Monday after the data:
- April 6, 2007 the expectations was 135K new jobs. The data came in stronger at 180K. On April 5, 2007 the S&P closed at 1443.76 and ironically, the opening price on the following Monday was the exact same level. The price ended up closing higher on that Monday at 1444.61. No change from Thursday close to Monday open.
- April 6, 2012 the expectations were for 207K new jobs. The data came in weaker than expected at 120K. On April 5, 2012 the S&P closed at 1398.08 and the opening price on the following Monday was at 1397.45 down modestly. The momentum to the downside continued with the market closing at 1382.20. The change from Thursday close to Monday open was -0.63 or -0.05%
- April 3, 2015 the expectations were for 246K new jobs. The data came in weaker at 126K. On April 2, 2015, the price closed at 2066.96, and the opening price on the following Monday was at 2064.87. However the price that day closed higher at 2080.62.The change from Thursday close to Monday open was -2.09 or -0.10%
- April 2, 2021 the expectations were for a gain of 652K new jobs. The data came in stronger at 916K. On April 1, the price closed at 4019.87 and the opening price on the following Monday was at 4034.44. The price that they closed at 4077.91.The change from Thursday close to Monday open was 14.57 points or +0.36%
In two of the four years, the data came out stronger, and the price the following Monday was unchanged one year and higher by 0.36%.
In the years where the data came out weaker, in 2012, the market opened up down -0.05%. In 2015, the market opened up down -0.10%.
So although there is added risk from the data release tomorrow, if history is any indication, the change come Monday morning should not be too much different than the closing level today.