AMC Entertainment stocks: how to play the short term trend accelerating higher
VolatilityMarkets Momentum Trade Idea
According to AQR the quantitative hedge fund and Yale University, over the past 100 years markets moved in trends. Trends are successive upwards and downwards movements in price that occur at a greater frequency than would be predicted by randomness alone. The following trade idea is a momentum trade idea which takes the assumption that the market will continue moving in the way it has over the previous sessions. momentum trading, is different than trend trading due to the time horizon of the trade as momentum trades will happen intraday or over the course of a single session while trend trading is done over the course of a week or more.
Price
AMC last price was $ 4.90 .
Trend analysis
In the short term AMC Entertainment has been accelerating higher. In the long term AMC Entertainment has been accelerating lower.
Value analysis
Over the past 20 days, the AMC price increased 10 days and decreased 10 days.
For every up day, there were 1.0 down days.
The average return on days where the price increased is 5.1298%
The average return on days where the price decreased is -5.7511%
Performance
Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -11.87% percent.
Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.5935% percent.
Trade Idea
Taking into account the long term trend accelerating lower, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon..
Buy $ 29,830 USD of AMC Entertainment ,
take profit
at $ 5.1847 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,733 USD gain,
stop out
at $ 4.7357 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss
through an overnight time horizon
Intraday Predictions
AMC Entertainment last price was $ 4.90 . The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating .
Over the past 20 days, the AMC Entertainment price increased 10 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.0 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 5.1298% The average return on days where the price decreased is -5.7511% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -11.87% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.5935% percent.
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for AMC Entertainment, is $ 4.4026 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 5.3974 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 4.7357 could trade and that $ 5.1847 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Expected Range
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for AMC Entertainment, is $ 4.4026 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 5.3974 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.
We are 50% confident that $ 4.7357 could trade and that $ 5.1847 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Probability Vs Payout Chart:
This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.
Key Takeaways:
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Price today $ 4.90
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Over the past 20 days, the AMC Entertainment price increased 10 days and decreased 10 Days.
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For every up day, there were 1.0 down days.
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The average return on days where the price increased is 5.1298%
-
The average return on days where the price decreased is -5.7511%
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Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -11.87% percent.
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Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.5935% percent.
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Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0174 per day lower
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Over the last session, the price increased by $ 0.4499
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Over the last session, the price increased by 9.1816 %
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Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.0698