EUR/USD extends the weekly rebound past 1.0900 ahead of US data
- EUR/USD adds to Tuesday’s uptick north of 1.0900.
- The dollar remains offered amidst the lack of traction in yields.
- US CPI, FOMC Minutes next of note across the pond.
The buying interest around the European currency remains well and sound and lifts EUR/USD further north of 1.0900 the figure on Wednesday.
EUR/USD looks firm in pre-CPI trade
EUR/USD advances for the second session in a row and looks to consolidate the recent breakout of the key 1.0900 barrier amidst the persistent selling pressure surrounding the greenback.
Indeed, investors keep selling the dollar and favour further strength in the pair as speculation of another soft print in US inflation (due later) might reinforce the perception that the Fed could pause its hiking cycle in May.
From the ECB, there are no changes so far to the idea of a most likely 25 bps rate in May, a view that continues to be propped up by hawkish comments from ECB’s rate setters.
Nothing scheduled data wise in the old continent on Wednesday should leave the attention to the release of US CPI and the publication of the FOMC Minutes later in the NA session.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD advances beyond the 1.0900 hurdle in response to the renewed weakness in the buck and further recovery in the risk-linked complex.
In the meantime, price action around the single currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the incipient Fed-ECB divergence when it comes to the banks’ intentions regarding the potential next moves in interest rates.
Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continue to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Final Inflation Rate, EMU Industrial Production (Thursday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation, or not, of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.0920 and a break above 1.0973 (monthly high April 4) would target 1.1032 (2023 high February 2) en route to 1.1100 (round level). On the flip side, the next support comes at 1.0788 (monthly low April 3) followed by 1.0747 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.0712 (low March 24).