USDJPY Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below for USDJPY,
we can see that after the little banking crisis in mid-March, the pair sold off
aggressively as the market started to price in several interest rates cuts from
the Fed by the end of the year and Treasury yields fell markedly. The USD/JPY
pair is notoriously correlated with the US Treasury yields, so if yields go up,
the pair goes up and vice versa.
Lately we started to get weak US
economic data that supported the JPY, but then the NFP report last Friday beat once
again expectations and the pair rallied strongly for hundreds of pips. Today we
have the US Jobless Claims and if this data misses once
again expectations, especially if it’s a big miss, the JPY should appreciate
again and we should see the sellers pushing the pair back to the previous low
at 129.91.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the rally after the NFP report stalled at the previous high at 133.77
where we have also the confluence from the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is clearly a strong resistance, so the buyers will want to see
it being breached before piling in and push the price to new higher highs. The
latest rejection may also turn into a double
top, but we
likely need to see US data to weaken again to confirm it.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the recent bullish momentum has faded as the price broke below the trendline that was defining it. Now we
have a possible little ascending
triangle pattern with moving
averages crossed to the downside. The near-term momentum is bearish, so if we
see the price breaking below the black trendline, we should see the sellers
piling in and pushing the price possibly to the previous low at 130.65. Watch
out for today’s US data.