WTI struggles near $82 after IEA warns of risks to global economic recovery

In its latest oil market report published on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that “OPEC+ supply cuts risk aggravating expected oil supply deficit in H2 2023,” which could lead to high prices that will hurt consumers and threaten economic growth.

Additional takeaways

OECD industry stocks in Jan surged by 53 mln barrels to 2.830 bln barrels, highest since July 2021.

Russian oil exports in March rose to highest since April 2020, with oil shipments rising by 600,000 bpd.

Russian oil product flows returned to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Rising global oil stocks may have contributed to OPEC+ decision.

Gains of 1 mln bpd from non-OPEC+ starting in March will fail to offset a 1.4 mln bpd decline from OPEC+.

Extra cuts by OPEC+ will push world oil supply down 400,000 bpd by end-2023.

Oecd demand contracted by 390,000 bpd YoY in Q1 due to weak industrial activity, warm weather.

Non-OECD countries led by China will make up 90% of demand growth.

Global oil demand is set to rise by 2 mln bpd in 2023 to a record 101.9 mln bpd.