UK Labor Force Survey: Risks skewed to the upside for wage growth – TDS

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Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) provide a sneak peek at what to expect from the UK labor market report due for release at 06:00 GMT this Tuesday.

Key quotes

“Wage growth has slowed notably on a monthly basis since December, and we look for that to continue through February, helping to bring annual wage inflation down further.“

“We forecast headline wage growth of 5.00% 3m/y for the three months ending February (mkt: 5.1%) and ex-bonus wage growth of 6.2% (mkt: 6.2%). Risks skew to an upside surprise, though, if Dec & Jan were weighed on by strike action.”

“While the labor market is showing early signs of cooling, we expect an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.7% (mkt: 3.8%).”