USDCHF Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below for USDCHF,
we can see that the price bounced from the 0.8858 support and rallied towards the 0.9006
resistance. That was a strong zone as we had the 0.90 handle, the red long
period moving
average and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level.
The buyers needed a strong
catalyst to break through but instead got a miss in US
Job Openings which caused a selloff as sellers piled in
expecting a weaker labour market going forward. The latest probe below the
0.8858 support was caused by yesterday’s FOMC
policy decision in which the Fed hinted at a possible pause if the
disinflationary trend continues as expected.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the last rally towards the 0.90 handle broke above a very strong trendline that acted as resistance for a
long time. After the breakout it seemed like the rally could extend all the way
up to the next major trendline near the 0.91 handle, but instead we got a
selloff soon after. That just shows how important it is to also follow the
fundamentals to get a clearer picture of what’s going on in the markets and to
manage better your risk.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price is currently pulling back, probably because the sellers want
to see first the US Jobless Claims and the NFP reports before really going for
it. In fact, the Fed can still hike in the future if the data picks up again
and inflationary pressures rise. We may see the price pulling back to one of
the Fibonacci retracement levels with the 50% as the most likely one given the confluence with the 0.89 handle and a swing
level. The data today will also be important because
we should see a rally in case of a big beat in Jobless Claims and a selloff in
case of a big miss.