UBS on Novak’s oil blooper Thursday | Forexlive

If you missed the earlier remarks from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the ones where he placed his foot perfectly into his mouth Adam had the run-down here:

UBS think he let the cat out of the bag with a brief take:

The oil market seems dominated by macro and sector rotation, but two things stand out

Comments from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the low probability of additional OPEC+ cuts when the group meets on June 4 have reversed some of the optimism that followed bullish comments from Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Prince Abdulasiz bin Selman earlier this week.

Also, Bloomberg reports that Russia is restarting some wells idled in April – this is probably not that significant from a volume perspective, but incrementally negative given there are already doubts about whether Russia actually implemented its 5013kb/d cut commitment.

The supply/demand dynamic is still supportive though, and OPEC+ cuts ex-Russia are more than enough to drive a deficit in the global oil market through end-Q2 that grows in H2 2023, unless there is a significant collapse in demand.